Tag Archives: interest rate reduction

Principal-ed Forgiveness

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photo by Vic

The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced a new program to implement principal reduction for seriously delinquent, underwater homeowners who meet the following criteria:

  • Are owner-occupants.
  • Are at least 90 days delinquent as of March 1, 2016.
  • Have an unpaid principal balance of $250,000 or less.
  • Have a mark-to-market loan-to-value ratio of more than 115% after capitalization. (1)

The program’s “modification terms include capitalization of outstanding arrearages, an interest rate reduction down to the current market rate, an extension of the loan term to 40 years, and forbearance of principal and/or arrearages up to a certain amount to be converted later to forgiveness.” (1) Once the borrower completes three timely payments, the principal forbearance amount can be forgiven.

This program can help just a small proportion of homeowners who have been underwater on their mortgages. Most importantly, it is being implemented years after the foreclosure crisis swamped the nation’s housing markets. But as can be seen from the criteria above, it is targeted just to homeowners with below-average principal balances on their mortgages and who are severely underwater. There are all sorts of political reasons that principal reduction was not a key component of the post-crisis housing finance reform agenda. But it is worth asking now — should we deploy it more quickly in the next crisis? What would be the principled reasons for doing that?

Many argued that principal forgiveness would reward homeowners for making bad, even immoral, decisions. With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been better to put that questions aside and ask what the best policy option for the country would have been. If outstanding principal balances could have been aligned more closely to the new normal of the post-financial crisis economy, the recovery could have proceeded more quickly.

Now would be the time for the FHFA to implement regulations to deal with the next great recession. If principal forgiveness makes sense under certain conditions, let’s identify them now and then have an easier time of it down the road.

The Weak Can Never Forgive?

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S&P has issued a report, Principal Forgiveness, Still The Best Way To Limit U.S. Mortgage Redefaults, Is Becoming More Prevalent, that asserts that its research “demonstrates the likelihood that servicers will recover a greater portion of their receivables through principal forgiveness versus other modification tools,” such as rate modification. (5) In particular, the authors found that as of March of 2013, “loans that received a principal reduction maintained the highest percentage (about 76%) of current-pay borrowers. By contrast, on average less than 50% of loans outstanding that received a modification other than principal forgiveness remained current.” (4)

I am not sure that their research actually demonstrates a causal connection between principal modification and recoveries as opposed to just providing a correlation between the two.  This perhaps naive analysis does, in any event, raise interesting and important questions about the efficacy of modifications.

And modifications are increasing.  Indeed, as of “February of this year, more than 1.5 million homeowners have received a permanent modification through the U.S. federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).” (1) Since last year, there has been “22% rate of growth in the number of modifications on an additional $2.4 billion in mortgage debt.” (1) Among the big five servicers, “principal forgiveness, as a percentage of average modifications performed on a monthly basis, has increased by about 200% since the latter half of 2011.” (1) And since 2009, “servicers have forgiven principal on approximately $45 billion of outstanding non-agency mortgages.” (1)

At the beginning of the crisis, many were terrified about the impact that principal modification would have on investors. FHFA Acting Director DeMarco was also concerned about the impact of Fannie and Freddie principal reductions on taxpayers. With a new Director for FHFA on the horizon, there might be a change of direction on this.

Gandhi said that forgiveness is an attribute of the strong.  Perhaps, our housing market is now strong enough to contemplate some serious loan forgiveness.